Eurozone flash PMIs this week were less bad than expected, bolstering a growing consensus that economic prospects are improving. Monetary trends continue to argue the opposite.

This year’s Forecast looks at the secular themes that underpin our outlook, and then considers the shorter-term cyclical factors influencing the outlook for the economy, inflation, and monetary policy. We examine market valuations and taking into account all these factors, we set the framework for…

A post in October gave a hopeful view of Chinese prospects, noting that “excess” money had accumulated and could flow into equities and the economy if policy-makers signalled a commitment to expansion.

We shine a light on emerging market small caps, looking at the characteristics and make up of this often misunderstood asset class.

In a soft month for EM equities, we review 2022’s winners and losers along with some key investment themes.

High inflation resulted in poor equity market performance in 2022 despite economic / earnings growth. Inflation relief in 2023 may limit further market weakness despite a global recession.

We examine what happened in the European energy sector in 2022 and look ahead to 2023.

The market turbulence experienced over the last several years culminated with a major downturn for both public equities and fixed income in 2022. However, the journey along the way did provide useful insights and lessons, particularly from the experiences during the height of the pandemic in 2020….

Recent Bank of England signals have been deemed to be less hawkish than those of the Fed and ECB, contributing to a view that UK policy tightening is less likely to prove excessive, in the sense of causing greater economic damage than necessary to return inflation to target.

Gas price relief and Chinese reopening have tempered pessimism about Eurozone economic prospects, contributing to a Q4 rally in equities. Monetary trends, by contrast, suggest a worsening outlook due to the ECB’s scorched earth policy tightening.  The preferred narrow money measure here –…

In this commentary, we look ahead to investment considerations in 2023, including resilience, strong balance sheets, and positive industry trends.

US non-farm payrolls have risen by an average of 337,000 per month in the eight months since the Fed started hiking rates in March. The household survey measure of employment was essentially flat over this period.

The BoJ’s decision to widen the fluctuation band of the 10-year JGB yield around the zero target follows an apparent withdrawal of monetary policy support by the PBoC in recent weeks.

Emerging markets bounced back through the month, fuelled by signals that inflation is peaking, China announcing measures to support the property market along with taking steps to reopen.

Our team recently traveled to Taiwan to meet with companies in a range of sectors. We discuss their findings and thoughts on the island nation.