Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill has suggested that fiscal policy easing in the mini-Budget and the reaction in markets warrant a “significant monetary policy response”. Why?  UK monetary trends conti [...]

Revised numbers confirm that US GDP fell by 0.6% (1.1% annualised) between Q4 2021 and Q2 2022*. Hours worked in the private sector economy, meanwhile, climbed 1.1% (2.2% annualised) over the same period. What explain [...]

Warren Stoddart, CC&L Financial Group’s President and CEO recently joined Rosemont CEO Chas Burkhart as a guest on the Global Investment Leaders podcast.

We discuss why Australia could better weather a recession.

Global six-month real narrow money momentum, the key economic leading indicator in the forecasting approach employed here, is estimated to have moved sideways in deep negative territory in August* – see chart 1. All [...]

While global liquidity remains poor, EM countries are dealing with a more manageable inflation problem than in DM. Money numbers also point to a better economic outlook for EM.  

In this week’s commentary we are profiling Dentium (145720 KS), a Korean dental implant manufacturer, and one of the top holdings of our Emerging Markets strategy.

Global six-month consumer price inflation peaked in June and fell further in August, reflecting pass-through of lower oil prices and a small decline in core momentum. Current commodity prices suggest a sizeable furthe [...]

Equity markets rebounded in the summer months, rallying when inflation edged off its highs or when Fed Chair Powell raised the possibility of a slowing in the pace of rate hikes. Throughout this period, earnings forec [...]

In this week’s commentary, we discuss an important item we look at before investing in any company: the strength of the balance sheet.

UK monetary trends continue to argue against Bank of England policy tightening.  Annual growth of non-financial M4 – comprising money holdings of households and private non-financial firms – was 3.7% in July, [...]

Recently, it seems everyone is travelling again with travel activities dramatically increasing in most regions. In this week’s commentary we profile our holding Samsonite, the world’s largest travel luggage compan [...]

Cyclical equity market sectors have recouped part of their H1 underperformance of defensive sectors but monetary and cycle considerations suggest further weakness ahead.  MSCI divides the 11 GICS sectors into cyc [...]

The assessment here a month ago was that Chinese monetary policy easing was gaining traction but that additional stimulus and a further recovery in narrow money momentum were required to adopt a positive view of eco [...]

Risk assets have rebound since mid-June, as investors expect economic weakness to alter central bank tightening course. Last month, we explored the greatest risk to our near term view, which is a sustained upside surp [...]